Is AI actually taking jobs?
Here's what the data says this week.
We track three things side by side: layoffs that companies or media attribute to AI, each graded for how well the AI claim stands up; live UK and US hiring; and how exposed each occupation's tasks are to AI. No hype, no doom - just the evidence and its limits.
Headline indices
Indeed indices are seasonally adjusted 7-day averages to 16 Oct 2026. ONS figures are official statistics in development; some months are partly imputed and March 2026 is suppressed - see methodology.
Cut this week vs hiring this week
Week of 16 Oct 2026 - 23 Oct 2026.
1 new AI-attributed ledger event · ~5,000 roles
2,466 employees in 16 WARN notices filed this week (California & Texas)
WARN notices cover layoffs for all causes - they are not AI-specific and are shown for scale only. Texas open data currently runs only to 23 Jun 2026. Largest: Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream (715, closure temporary); Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream (448, closure temporary); Dreyer's Grand Ice Cream (380, closure temporary).
90.1 UK new-postings index · +0.5% week on week
99.2 US new-postings index · +3.7% week on week
Indeed Hiring Lab, new postings (live for 7 days or fewer), Feb 2020 = 100, to 16 Oct 2026. Index levels, not job counts.
New job postings since 2020
UK online job adverts per month
Latest ledger entries
Full ledger (25) →| Date | Company | Roles cut | Roles affected | AI claim | Why this grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct 2026 | Barclays UK · Banking | ~5,000 | Support functions (reported c.60% of cuts), including technology/developer roles; UK retail bank | CDraft grade | AI is one of several stated drivers; the CEO explicitly plays AI down relative to a broader technology and cost programme. Details |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Kroger US · Retail (grocery) | ~3,000 | Corporate / head-office roles (functions not itemised) | CDraft grade | Memo cites delayering and price competition alongside technology; the AI link is mostly media framing and the affected roles are unspecified. Details |
| 8 Oct 2026 | HoneyBook Israel · Software | Undisclosed | Not specified | DDraft grade | The AI framing is vague and strategic, with no roles or systems named. Details |
| 7 Oct 2026 | HSBC UK · Banking / wealth management | Undisclosed | Financial advisers, relationship managers and specialists in UK wealth | CDraft grade | The roles are high-exposure, but HSBC's own statement says 'digital' rather than AI, the AI link comes from press sourcing, and no headcount was given. Details |
| 7 Oct 2026 | Amazon US · Retail / technology | Undisclosed | Roles mainly in the Stores (retail) division | FDraft grade | Amazon denies an AI link and gives an organisational reason; the AI connection comes only from media framing. Details |
| 6 Oct 2026 | HubSpot US · Software | ~660 | Management layers and roles across the company (flatter organisation) | DDraft grade | The company explicitly says the cuts are not driven by AI efficiencies; AI is only the strategic backdrop to a delayering. On a strict reading this could be F. Details |
| 6 Oct 2026 | DNB Norway · Banking | ~400 | Technology & Services: customer-data controls / KYC, technology development and coding work | BDraft grade | An official release links the cuts to agentic AI and names the task areas, which are high-exposure. It stops short of A because it names no specific system. Details |
| 6 Oct 2026 | FICO (Fair Isaac) US · Software / analytics | Undisclosed | Not specified | CDraft grade | The filing lists AI as one of several reasons, next to delayering and simplification; the roles aren't specified. Details |
Does AI exposure predict where UK hiring is falling?
Each dot is one of our 55 tracked occupations (click to open). Correlation r = 0.10. A weak relationship either way is consistent with Anthropic's finding of no systematic unemployment rise among exposed workers so far.
Most AI-exposed tracked occupations
| Occupation | AI coverage | UK adverts y/y | US postings y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Computer programmer | 75% | +4.2% | +22.7% |
| Customer service adviser | 70% | -4.9% | -5.1% |
| Call centre agent | 70% | -9.1% | -5.1% |
| Data entry clerk | 67% | -9.4% | -11.4% |
| Marketing executive | 65% | -5.1% | +5.7% |
| Sales representative | 63% | -5.6% | -15.2% |
| Financial analyst | 57% | -7.8% | +28.2% |
| Software tester | 52% | -1.4% | +22.7% |
US postings are Indeed's broader job category (shared by several occupations), not the exact occupation.
The Displaced Index weekly
One email a week: new ledger entries and grades, and what UK and US hiring data actually did. No provider is connected yet, so this form does not send or store anything.